Academic Publications

Predicting Youth Assault and Institutional Danger in Juvenile Correctional Facilities

David Rembert | Howard Henderson


This study examined whether the Positive Achievement Change Tool-Prescreen (PACT-PS) risk assessment could predict youth assault and overall institutional danger among 730 male juvenile offenders in correctional facilities. It found the tool had poor predictive validity overall.

Key Takeaways

  •  The PACT-PS performed poorly in predicting youth assaults, with AUC values near 0.50.
  • It was slightly better at predicting institutional danger, with AUC of 0.56 overall.
  • The tool was more predictive for white youth than Hispanic or black youth.
  • Criminal history factors like prior felonies were most predictive of misconduct.
  • The tool needs modification with factors tailored to institutional misconduct to improve predictive validity.