The Big Picture

Probation outcomes can be influenced by various factors, including race, gender, and offense severity. This study examines how these factors, both independently and in combination, predict probation failure. By analyzing a large, randomly selected sample of adult probationers, the research explores the nuanced role of intersectionality—how overlapping social identities can affect individuals differently within the criminal justice system.
What We Did

Researchers analyzed data from 117,071 adult probationers from two large southwestern cities. The study assessed established predictors of probation failure, including race, gender, offense severity, location, and risk assessment scores. Two logistic regression models were used: one examining the main effects of these predictors and another incorporating interaction effects between race and gender as well as race and offense severity.

1

Race and Gender Interactions Matter:

The interaction between being African American and male significantly predicted probation failure. Similarly, Hispanic men were also more likely to fail probation, highlighting the importance of considering how race and gender intersect to influence outcomes.

2

Offense Severity and Race:

Hispanic felons were significantly more likely to fail probation than non-Hispanic misdemeanants, indicating that offense severity interacts with race to impact probation outcomes. However, the interaction between being Black and felony status was not significant, suggesting that offense severity’s impact varies by racial group.

3

Risk Assessment Scores as Predictors:

Higher risk assessment scores were the most potent predictors of probation failure across all groups, underscoring the role of these instruments in decision-making processes.

These findings underscore the importance of considering intersectionality in criminal justice research and practice. The study suggests that race and gender together can significantly influence probation outcomes, beyond the effects of each factor individually. Recognizing these intersectional effects is crucial for addressing biases and improving fairness within probation systems.

1

Implement Intersectional Training:

Criminal justice professionals should receive training that highlights the importance of intersectionality in understanding probation outcomes. This can help mitigate biases in decision-making.

2

Review and Adjust Risk Assessment Tools:

Given the significant role of risk assessment scores, it’s vital to ensure these tools do not inadvertently perpetuate biases against certain racial or gender groups. Regular reviews and adjustments of these instruments can enhance their predictive equity.

3

Focus on Community-Level Factors:

Location and community-level variables were also significant predictors of probation failure. Tailoring probation practices to the unique sociopolitical contexts of different communities could improve outcomes.

About the Study

This research provides important insights into the intersectional influences on probation outcomes and suggests pathways for reducing disparities within the criminal justice system. The full APA citation is: Steinmetz, K. F., & Henderson, H. (2015). On the precipice of intersectionality: The influence of race, gender, and offense severity interactions on probation outcomes. Criminal Justice Review, 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1177/0734016815577194