The Big Picture

In recent years, pretrial risk assessments have come under scrutiny for potentially exhibiting racial biases that disproportionately classify Black and Brown defendants as high-risk, affecting their chances of release and pretrial outcomes. This study examines the predictive equity of a pretrial risk assessment tool (PTRA) and evaluates how race may influence pretrial risk classification and supervision outcomes, particularly focusing on the occurrence of classification errors.
What We Did

Researchers analyzed data from 351 pretrial defendants from an East Coast county, assessing their demographic information, risk classifications, highest charges, and pretrial statuses using the Pre-Trial Release Risk Assessment (PTRA) tool. The study employed a series of statistical analyses, including logistic regression and area under the curve (AUC) analysis, to examine the relationship between risk classification and supervision outcomes, and to identify any racial disparities in classification errors.

1

Racial Disparities in Risk Scores:

Black defendants were found to have higher PTRA scores compared to White defendants, supporting previous research that suggests minority groups are often rated as higher risk. However, the study found no significant difference in the predictive accuracy of risk classifications between Black and White defendants when it came to false positives and false negatives.

2

Risk Classification and Supervision Outcomes:

The PTRA was effective in predicting pretrial supervision outcomes, with high-risk classifications strongly associated with removal from pretrial supervision. However, some inconsistencies were noted, particularly with the unvalidated “Moderate/High Risk” category, which showed random patterns in predicting outcomes.

3

Need for Further Validation:

The study highlighted the necessity for localized validation of pretrial risk assessment tools and a cautious approach to their implementation, ensuring they do not perpetuate racial disparities through unexamined biases in scoring.

The findings emphasize the complexity of racial equity in pretrial risk assessments and the critical need to ensure these tools are validated and adjusted for local populations to prevent systemic biases. This is vital for maintaining the legitimacy of the criminal justice system and ensuring fair treatment of all defendants, regardless of race.

1

Discontinue Unvalidated Risk Categories:

The study recommends discontinuing the use of unvalidated risk categories, such as “Moderate/High Risk,” which showed inconsistent predictive validity.

2

Enhance Predictive Accuracy:

Regular reviews and adjustments to the PTRA tool are necessary to ensure it fairly predicts outcomes across different racial groups, with particular attention to specific offenses that may affect predictive accuracy.

3

Implement Intersectional Considerations in Training:

Criminal justice professionals should be trained on the intersectional impacts of race and other social factors to better understand and mitigate biases in risk assessment and supervision decisions.

About the Study

This study was conducted by Howard Henderson and Jack Sevil from Texas Southern University, Danielle Lessard from West Virginia State College, and David Rembert from Prairie View A&M University. It contributes to the broader discourse on racial equity in pretrial justice by highlighting the need for continued research and improvement of risk assessment tools to ensure they do not unfairly disadvantage minority groups. The full APA citation is: Henderson, H., Sevil, J., Lessard, D., & Rembert, D. (2022). Determining racial equity in pretrial risk assessment. Federal Probation, 86(3), 26-34