Understanding the Impact of Pretrial Decisions on Jail Populations and Crime in Texas and Beyond

Project Overview

The Center for Justice Research, in collaboration with Wellbeing & Equity Innovations, is laying the groundwork for a first-of-its-kind statewide study on how pretrial decisions influence jail populations and crime in Texas. Funded by Arnold Ventures, this initiative explores the real-world impact of pretrial release decisions, conditions, and services—especially in light of changes triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. The planning phase focuses on building partnerships, validating and integrating high-quality data, refining research design, and preparing for a larger multi-site causal study.

Why It Matters

In 2023, jail populations across the country rebounded to pre-pandemic levels despite earlier reforms. This research is critical to uncovering which pretrial strategies are truly effective at reducing jail populations, maintaining public safety, and promoting equity in decision-making.

Key Goals

  • Identifying which pretrial practices work—and which do not.
  • Informing policies with rigorous, causal evidence.
  • Supporting data-driven decision-making for Texas jail systems.
  • Exploring the intersection of public health and justice system outcomes using county-level health data.

Methodology

The project employs advanced causal inference methods—including synthetic control matching, regression discontinuity, and instrumental variables—to isolate the effects of pretrial policy changes. Public health data (e.g., mental illness, substance use) are integrated to contextualize outcomes.

Stakeholder Engagement

We’re actively partnering with pretrial services, courts, law enforcement, and community organizations across Texas. Participation is designed to be flexible and low-burden, with benefits including:
  • Access to exclusive data on pretrial strategies
  • Networking across jurisdictions
  • Helping shape policy through shared insights and local data

Interested in Getting Involved?

Counties and agencies can participate in this collaborative research effort to help improve pretrial systems across Texas.

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